Track T-117 — Unknown surface contact, ESM correlation, AIS gap

Independent per-class likelihoods (sensor-fusion convention) — not a mutually-exclusive distribution; values do not sum to 100%.

Click an alternative to see why · click the info icon for calibration methodology

• ESM library last updated 2026-04-04 (47 days old); a new civilian-band emitter class was filed by a regional ferry operator on 2026-04-12 and may not yet be classified.

  STANAG 1144 lib v2026.03
• AIS spoofing prevalence in AO-12 is 0.4% of tracks over the last 90 days; MMSI 441-band is consistent with the registered vessel database, but a spoofed transponder cannot be ruled out from kinematics alone.

  AIS spoofing baseline · AO-12
• METOC forecasts sea-state 4 rising to 5 within 2h; sea-state ≥ 5 degrades IRST Band II (8–14µm) SNR by ≥3 dB and the T-117 ↔ I-44 correlation could fall below the 0.85 retention threshold.

  METOC SS forecastIRST Band II degradation curve